End use technology choice in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS): An Analysis of the Residential and Commercial Sectors

End use technology choice in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS): An Analysis of the Residential and Commercial Sectors
Energy Economics 40: 773–84 (2013), doi 10.1016/j.eneco.2013.09.023
(with Jordan T. Wilkerson, Danielle Davidian, and John P. Weyant)

We analyze how NEMS projects energy demand in the residential and commercial sectors. In particular, we focus on the role of consumers' preferences and financial constraints, investigating how consumers choose appliances and other end-use technologies. We identify conceptual issues in the approach the model takes to the same question across both sectors and show that static assumptions describing consumer behavior drive the model's results. Under a plausible range of alternative assumptions, model results vary by approximately ± 10%.